niftiIQ power ratings
Read this first. This rating is not the official standings and has no bearing on the playoffs. It is a statistical estimate of how many points better or worse than an average Maine team each program has played, from 73 games this season. It has not been backtested — we have no prior-season data yet — so we publish it with its uncertainty and track how it does from here. Teams are ranked only after 3 games. Estimated home-field edge this season: 2.6 points.
Two separate lists, on purpose. 11-man teams (Classes A–D) and 8-man teams never play each other, so their ratings live on two different scales and can't be compared. Within 11-man, classes are linked only by the games played across class lines — 4 so far this season — so a Class C team rated near a Class A team means "has played its schedule about as well," not "would beat them." Those cross-class links get more reliable every week.
11-man teams
| # | Team | Division | Games | Rating | 80% band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | Gardiner | Class C | 2 | +7.9 | 0.0 to 10.8 |
| — | Hermon | Class C | 2 | +7.9 | 0.0 to 10.0 |
| — | Portland | Class A North | 2 | +7.8 | 0.0 to 10.4 |
| — | Oxford Hills | Class A North | 2 | +7.7 | 0.0 to 10.4 |
| — | Thornton | Class A South | 2 | +6.5 | 0.0 to 8.6 |
| — | Lawrence | Class B North | 2 | +6.4 | 0.0 to 8.9 |
| — | Massabesic | Class A South | 2 | +6.1 | 0.0 to 8.0 |
| — | Biddeford | Class B South | 2 | +5.9 | 0.0 to 8.1 |
| — | Edward Little | Class A North | 1 | +5.5 | -0.0 to 8.7 |
| — | Morse | Class D South | 2 | +5.4 | 0.0 to 7.4 |
| — | Winthrop | Class D South | 2 | +5.4 | 0.0 to 7.6 |
| — | Leavitt | Class C | 1 | +5.2 | -0.0 to 7.7 |
| — | Freeport | Class D South | 2 | +5.2 | 0.0 to 7.7 |
| — | Bonny Eagle | Class A South | 2 | +4.7 | -0.0 to 7.6 |
| — | Marshwood | Class B South | 2 | +4.7 | 0.6 to 7.2 |
| — | Winslow | Class D North | 2 | +4.6 | 0.0 to 6.8 |
| — | Bangor | Class A North | 2 | +4.1 | -0.8 to 7.5 |
| — | Wells | Class C | 2 | +3.1 | -0.0 to 4.5 |
| — | Cony | Class B North | 2 | +2.2 | 0.0 to 2.8 |
| — | Mt. Blue | Class B North | 2 | +1.9 | -2.0 to 5.5 |
| — | Dirigo | Class D South | 2 | +1.8 | -3.8 to 6.0 |
| — | Skowhegan | Class B North | 2 | +1.4 | -1.0 to 3.1 |
| — | Oceanside | Class C | 2 | +1.0 | -4.2 to 5.7 |
| — | MCI | Class D North | 2 | +0.9 | -5.4 to 7.5 |
| — | Cheverus | Class B South | 2 | +0.8 | -1.1 to 2.4 |
| — | Westbrook | Class B South | 2 | +0.7 | -0.8 to 1.6 |
| — | Brewer | Class C | 2 | +0.4 | -0.7 to 2.6 |
| — | Foxcroft | Class C | 2 | +0.2 | -4.9 to 4.3 |
| — | Greely | Class C | 2 | +0.1 | -5.5 to 5.3 |
| — | Madison | Class D North | 1 | -0.2 | -1.0 to 0.8 |
| — | Poland | Class D South | 2 | -0.3 | -6.1 to 5.8 |
| — | Windham | Class A North | 2 | -0.9 | -4.7 to 3.7 |
| — | Brunswick | Class B North | 2 | -1.0 | -4.3 to 2.8 |
| — | Fryeburg | Class B North | 2 | -1.7 | -3.0 to -0.0 |
| — | South Portland | Class A South | 2 | -2.0 | -4.3 to 0.2 |
| — | Belfast | Class D North | 2 | -2.8 | -4.9 to 0.1 |
| — | Mountain Valley | Class D South | 2 | -2.8 | -4.4 to -0.0 |
| — | Falmouth | Class B South | 2 | -2.9 | -3.9 to -0.0 |
| — | Messalonskee | Class B North | 2 | -3.0 | -4.5 to 0.0 |
| — | Medomak Valley | Class C | 1 | -3.1 | -4.9 to 0.0 |
| — | Noble | Class A South | 2 | -3.3 | -6.4 to 1.3 |
| — | Oak Hill | Class D North | 2 | -3.4 | -7.9 to 2.9 |
| — | Mattanawcook | Class D North | 2 | -3.5 | -6.9 to 1.1 |
| — | Kennebunk | Class B South | 2 | -3.6 | -6.1 to 0.3 |
| — | John Bapst | Class D North | 2 | -4.3 | -6.8 to -0.0 |
| — | Camden Hills | Class B North | 2 | -4.8 | -6.9 to -0.0 |
| — | Lisbon | Class D South | 1 | -5.0 | -7.9 to 0.0 |
| — | Nokomis | Class C | 2 | -6.8 | -9.6 to -0.0 |
| — | Hampden | Class C | 2 | -7.1 | -9.6 to -0.0 |
| — | Gorham | Class B South | 2 | -7.3 | -10.3 to -0.0 |
| — | Scarborough | Class A South | 2 | -7.8 | -10.5 to -0.0 |
| — | Sanford | Class A South | 2 | -8.0 | -10.3 to -2.8 |
| — | Deering | Class A North | 2 | -8.6 | -11.4 to -0.0 |
| — | Lewiston | Class A North | 2 | -9.4 | -13.0 to -0.0 |
| — | York | Class C | 2 | -9.6 | -12.3 to 0.0 |
8-man teams
| # | Team | Division | Games | Rating | 80% band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | Old Town | 8-Man Large North | 2 | +11.1 | 0.0 to 14.2 |
| — | Stearns | 8-Man Small North | 2 | +9.7 | 0.0 to 12.5 |
| — | Ellsworth | 8-Man Large North | 2 | +9.4 | -0.0 to 11.9 |
| — | Cape Elizabeth | 8-Man Large South | 2 | +8.0 | 0.0 to 10.5 |
| — | Maranacook | 8-Man Small South | 2 | +7.4 | 0.0 to 10.5 |
| — | Yarmouth | 8-Man Large South | 1 | +7.3 | -0.0 to 10.9 |
| — | OOB | 8-Man Small South | 2 | +4.7 | -0.1 to 8.3 |
| — | Spruce Mountain | 8-Man Large South | 1 | +3.9 | -0.0 to 6.2 |
| — | Washington Academy | 8-Man Small North | 1 | +3.0 | -0.0 to 5.6 |
| — | Telstar | 8-Man Small South | 2 | +1.0 | -3.2 to 5.2 |
| — | Bucksport | 8-Man Small North | 2 | +0.8 | -5.3 to 6.4 |
| — | Lake Region | 8-Man Large South | 2 | -1.6 | -6.2 to 4.9 |
| — | MDI | 8-Man Large North | 2 | -1.8 | -6.7 to 4.2 |
| — | Waterville | 8-Man Large North | 2 | -2.4 | -5.7 to 1.9 |
| — | Gray-NG | 8-Man Large South | 1 | -2.9 | -4.8 to 0.0 |
| — | Orono | 8-Man Small North | 2 | -4.1 | -7.4 to 0.0 |
| — | Dexter | 8-Man Small North | 1 | -5.2 | -8.6 to 0.0 |
| — | Boothbay | 8-Man Small South | 1 | -5.7 | -8.4 to 0.0 |
| — | Mount View | 8-Man Small South | 2 | -7.3 | -9.8 to -0.0 |
| — | Houlton | 8-Man Large North | 2 | -7.5 | -10.2 to -0.0 |
| — | Sacopee Valley | 8-Man Small South | 2 | -8.6 | -11.2 to -0.0 |
| — | Traip | 8-Man Small South | 2 | -9.5 | -12.5 to -0.0 |
| — | Mt. Ararat | 8-Man Large South | 2 | -9.9 | -12.7 to -0.0 |
How it works
Every final game gives one equation: capped margin = rating(home) − rating(away) + home edge. Margins are capped at ±28 so a 60–0 game doesn't count for more than a 28–0 game. We solve all equations at once (least squares) every time a result is entered — there is no game-order effect, unlike Elo. Because 8 games is a tiny sample, every team is also pulled toward zero with the weight of 3.0 imaginary average games; that pull fades as real games accumulate. The band comes from re-solving 300 times on random resamples of the games. 11-man and 8-man are rated as two separate pools because they never meet. Within a pool, classes are linked only by cross-class games, so early-season comparisons across classes lean on a handful of results and the pull toward average; read them loosely until October.
Planned: once we have a prior season, the pull target becomes last year's rating regressed halfway to the division mean; the margin SD (17.0 points, used for win probabilities in recaps) will be tuned on history. Both are logged in the project's DECISIONS file.