| Claim type | Max points |
|---|---|
| starting QB change not yet in the feed | 6.0 |
| key starter out, not on the injury report | 2.0 |
| key starter returning | 1.5 |
| resting starters / playing backups | 8.0 |
| suspension | 2.0 |
| coaching change | 2.0 |
| motivation / eliminated / nothing to play for | 1.5 |
| locker-room or organisational turmoil | 1.0 |
| unusual travel or schedule disruption | 1.0 |
| weather at kickoff (logged, zero weight) | 0.0 |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) | 0.5 |
| Type | Claims | Graded | Avg pts | Helped | Brier Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report | 4 | 0 | 1.9 | – | – |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed | 1 | 0 | 5.7 | – | – |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) | 1 | 0 | 0.4 | – | – |
| Rejected because | Type | Claims | Graded | Would have helped | Brier Δ if applied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| confidence 0.65 below floor for other | other | 4 | 0 | – | – |
| retired: now on the injury report | key_player_out | 4 | 0 | – | – |
| confidence 0.70 below floor for other | other | 2 | 0 | – | – |
| confidence 0.75 below floor for other | other | 2 | 0 | – | – |
| no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') | key_player_out | 2 | 0 | – | – |
| not an in-week coaching change | coaching_change | 2 | 0 | – | – |
| confidence 0.00 below floor for coaching_change | coaching_change | 1 | 0 | – | – |
| confidence 0.30 below floor for key_player_out | key_player_out | 1 | 0 | – | – |
| confidence 0.35 below floor for key_player_out | key_player_out | 1 | 0 | – | – |
| confidence 0.60 below floor for coaching_change | coaching_change | 1 | 0 | – | – |
| no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') | qb_change | 1 | 0 | – | – |
| return of a player the model was not counting out | key_player_return | 1 | 0 | – | – |
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Source | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.75 below floor for other Backup QB Tyson Bagent listed questionable with back injury, expected to be inactive; Miller Moss signed to practice squad and elevated for Sunday | CHI | 0.75 | +0.4 | api | pending |
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Source | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Not expected to play Sunday | NO | Alvin Kamara | 0.95 | +1.9 | api | pending |
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Source | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.70 below floor for other Bills' new stadium grass field had major deformations; replacement field in use for Week 1 | BUF | 0.70 | +0.3 | api | pending |
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Source | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report LB downgraded to out for Ravens game | IND | Austin Ajiake | 0.95 | -1.9 | api | pending |
| coaching change declined: confidence 0.00 below floor for coaching_change John Harbaugh left Ravens to become Giants head coach in offseason | IND | 0.00 | +0.0 | api | pending |
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Source | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') CB unlikely to play Week 1 due to back injury and contract dispute | PIT | Joey Porter Jr. | 0.85 | -1.7 | api | pending |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.70 below floor for other Starting QB dealing with back spasms as of Saturday; Falcons still expect him to start but condition could affect performance | ATL | Cooper Rush | 0.70 | +0.3 | api | pending |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.65 below floor for other CB status unclear for Sunday; Steelers elevated backup Doneiko Slaughter to active roster as contingency | PIT | Joey Porter Jr. | 0.65 | -0.3 | api | pending |
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Source | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| coaching change declined: not an in-week coaching change Robert Saleh hired as new head coach of Titans, making debut this week | TEN | 0.70 | -1.4 | api | pending |
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Source | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Off injury report, set to play Week 1 vs. Dolphins | LV | Ashton Jeanty | 0.90 | +1.4 | api | pending |
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Source | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.65 below floor for other Running back pleaded no contest to multiple misdemeanor charges; video sealed by judge, potential career complication | GB | Josh Jacobs | 0.65 | +0.3 | api | pending |
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Source | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Rookie tight end placed on injured reserve; will not play Week 1 | PHI | Eli Stowers | 0.95 | -1.9 | api | pending |
| coaching change declined: confidence 0.60 below floor for coaching_change Eagles offensive coordinator moved to booth for first time under Nick Sirianni | PHI | 0.60 | +1.2 | api | pending | |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.65 below floor for other Offensive coordinator moving to booth for first time under Nick Sirianni; change in play-calling communication structure | PHI | 0.65 | -0.3 | api | pending |
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Source | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: confidence 0.35 below floor for key_player_out WR listed as questionable; Giants signed insurance WR Dalen Cambre from practice squad | NYG | Malik Nabers | 0.35 | -0.7 | api | pending |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.75 below floor for other John Harbaugh era begins; Giants coaching staff change from previous season | NYG | 0.75 | +0.4 | api | pending |
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Source | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) Undrafted rookie starting at LT for Chiefs; Josh Simmons (Out) replaced by unproven backup | KC | Kahlil Benson | 0.85 | -0.4 | api | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Ruled out for Chiefs' opener Monday night | KC | Chamarri Conner | 0.95 | -1.9 | api | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: retired: now on the injury report Left tackle ruled out for Monday night; undrafted rookie Kahlil Benson to start | KC | Josh Simmons | 0.95 | -1.9 | api | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: confidence 0.30 below floor for key_player_out Defensive lineman listed as limited with calf injury on Friday injury report | KC | Chris Jones | 0.30 | -0.6 | api | pending |