niftiNFL — season projections

niftiNFL — Season · 2026

Every team's strength is its current rating (Elo, adjusted EPA, named QB); the remaining schedule is simulated 5,000 times with NFL playoff rules. 2 games already played count as final. Updated 2026-09-13. · predictions are published to show the model works. nothing here is betting advice.

15%

Super Bowl odds #1 · BUF

12%

Super Bowl odds #2 · SEA

Super Bowl odds #3 · SF

Super Bowl odds #4 · DET

Projected season

Strength = points better (or worse) than an average team on a neutral field. Range = 10th–90th percentile of 5,000 simulated seasons; several teams will finish outside their own range — that is what a 17-game season does.

#	Team	Now	Strength	Proj. wins	Range	First run	Division	Playoffs	1 seed	Conf. title	Super Bowl
1	BUF Buffalo Bills	0–0	+5.7	11.3	9–14	11.3 +0.0	68%	90%	26%	43%	15%
2	SF San Francisco 49ers	1–0	+4.4	10.9	9–13	10.9 +0.0	33%	81%	18%	31%	9%
3	SEA Seattle Seahawks	1–0	+4.2	11.8	9–14	11.8 +0.0	52%	89%	32%	40%	12%
4	BAL Baltimore Ravens	0–0	+3.9	10.5	8–13	10.5 +0.0	49%	78%	14%	27%	7%
5	DET Detroit Lions	0–0	+3.7	10.7	8–13	10.7 +0.0	48%	74%	14%	28%	8%
6	LA Los Angeles Rams	0–1	+3.6	10.0	8–12	10.0 +0.0	15%	62%	7%	19%	5%
7	JAX Jacksonville Jaguars	0–0	+3.5	10.6	8–13	10.6 +0.0	48%	81%	14%	26%	7%
8	HOU Houston Texans	0–0	+3.0	10.4	8–13	10.4 +0.0	45%	78%	14%	24%	5%
9	PHI Philadelphia Eagles	0–0	+2.6	10.0	7–13	10.0 +0.0	62%	71%	9%	23%	5%
10	NE New England Patriots	0–1	+2.5	9.9	7–12	9.9 +0.0	29%	72%	9%	20%	4%
11	DEN Denver Broncos	0–0	+2.4	9.8	7–12	9.8 +0.0	58%	72%	9%	21%	5%
12	GB Green Bay Packers	0–0	+2.2	9.3	7–12	9.3 +0.0	21%	49%	5%	13%	3%
13	MIN Minnesota Vikings	0–0	+2.0	9.1	6–12	9.1 +0.0	18%	44%	4%	11%	2%
14	CIN Cincinnati Bengals	0–0	+1.9	10.0	7–13	10.0 +0.0	38%	70%	9%	18%	4%
15	CHI Chicago Bears	0–0	+0.8	8.7	6–11	8.7 +0.0	14%	37%	2%	8%	1%
16	LAC Los Angeles Chargers	0–0	+0.5	8.5	6–11	8.5 +0.0	28%	46%	3%	9%	1%
17	KC Kansas City Chiefs	0–0	-0.2	7.4	5–10	7.4 -0.0	13%	24%	<1%	4%	1%
18	TB Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0–0	-0.5	8.4	6–11	8.4 +0.0	32%	41%	2%	8%	1%
19	PIT Pittsburgh Steelers	0–0	-0.6	8.2	6–11	8.2 +0.0	10%	34%	2%	5%	1%
20	NO New Orleans Saints	0–0	-1.5	8.3	6–11	8.3 +0.0	30%	39%	1%	6%	1%
21	IND Indianapolis Colts	0–0	-1.8	7.5	5–10	7.5 +0.0	6%	22%	1%	2%	<1%
22	DAL Dallas Cowboys	0–0	-1.9	7.0	5–9	7.0 +0.0	10%	15%	<1%	2%	<1%
23	NYG New York Giants	0–0	-2.1	7.7	5–10	7.7 +0.0	16%	26%	1%	4%	<1%
24	MIA Miami Dolphins	0–0	-3.0	6.8	4–9	6.8 +0.0	2%	13%	<1%	1%	<1%
25	WAS Washington Commanders	0–0	-3.1	7.2	5–10	7.2 +0.0	12%	19%	1%	2%	<1%
26	CAR Carolina Panthers	0–0	-3.4	6.5	4–9	6.5 +0.0	8%	12%	<1%	1%	<1%
27	ATL Atlanta Falcons	0–0	-3.6	8.2	6–11	8.2 +0.0	30%	39%	2%	5%	<1%
28	CLE Cleveland Browns	0–0	-4.2	6.8	4–9	6.8 +0.0	3%	13%	<1%	1%	<1%
29	ARI Arizona Cardinals	0–0	-5.5	5.6	3–8	5.6 +0.0	<1%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
30	LV Las Vegas Raiders	0–0	-7.2	5.4	3–8	5.4 +0.0	2%	4%	<1%	<1%	<1%
31	NYJ New York Jets	0–0	-8.2	4.4	2–7	4.4 +0.0	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
32	TEN Tennessee Titans	0–0	-8.6	5.2	3–8	5.2 +0.0	1%	3%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Projected standings · AFC

Line after 7: the playoff cut (4 division winners + 3 wild cards).

#	Team	Wins	Playoffs	Division	1 seed	Conf. title
1	BUF East	11.3	90%	68%	26%	43%
2	JAX South	10.6	81%	48%	14%	26%
3	BAL North	10.5	78%	49%	14%	27%
4	HOU South	10.4	78%	45%	14%	24%
5	CIN North	10.0	70%	38%	9%	18%
6	NE East	9.9	72%	29%	9%	20%
7	DEN West	9.8	72%	58%	9%	21%
8	LAC West	8.5	46%	28%	3%	9%
9	PIT North	8.2	34%	10%	2%	5%
10	IND South	7.5	22%	6%	1%	2%
11	KC West	7.4	24%	13%	<1%	4%
12	MIA East	6.8	13%	2%	<1%	1%
13	CLE North	6.8	13%	3%	<1%	1%
14	LV West	5.4	4%	2%	<1%	<1%
15	TEN South	5.2	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
16	NYJ East	4.4	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Projected standings · NFC

Line after 7: the playoff cut (4 division winners + 3 wild cards).

#	Team	Wins	Playoffs	Division	1 seed	Conf. title
1	SEA West	11.8	89%	52%	32%	40%
2	SF West	10.9	81%	33%	18%	31%
3	DET North	10.7	74%	48%	14%	28%
4	LA West	10.0	62%	15%	7%	19%
5	PHI East	10.0	71%	62%	9%	23%
6	GB North	9.3	49%	21%	5%	13%
7	MIN North	9.1	44%	18%	4%	11%
8	CHI North	8.7	37%	14%	2%	8%
9	TB South	8.4	41%	32%	2%	8%
10	NO South	8.3	39%	30%	1%	6%
11	ATL South	8.2	39%	30%	2%	5%
12	NYG East	7.7	26%	16%	1%	4%
13	WAS East	7.2	19%	12%	1%	2%
14	DAL East	7.0	15%	10%	<1%	2%
15	CAR South	6.5	12%	8%	<1%	1%
16	ARI West	5.6	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%

Up since the first projection (2026-09-12)

The first run of the season is kept on the record.

Team	Then	Now	Δ
DEN	9.8 (#11)	9.8 (#11)	+0.0

Down since the first projection

Team	Then	Now	Δ
KC	7.4 (#17)	7.4 (#17)	-0.0

Projections are estimates with wide error bars; injuries — above all at quarterback — will move them. Refreshed after every run.