niftiNFL — week 1 predictions

niftiNFL — Week 1

Sunday, September 13, 2026 · picks stored before kickoff, graded after the final · predictions are published to show the model works. nothing here is betting advice.

games this week

0–0

2026 record

–

Vegas favorite, same games

65.0%

backtest 2010–2025 · 4,146 games →

–

hit rate on 75%+ picks

longest streak · current 0

–

avg. margin error (pts)

Week 1 picks

Bold team is the pick. "Why" shows the factors that moved it, in percentage points of win probability. Vegas column is the closing favorite for comparison — never a model input.

Kickoff (ET)

Matchup

Win probability

Pick

Projected

Vegas favorite

Why this pick

Sun 1:00 PM

ATL @ PITFalcons at Steelers

Cooper Rush vs Aaron Rodgers

67%

PIT

19–25

PIT −6 same

PIT at home (+7); PIT has the QB edge (+7); ATL in better form (-2)

Sun 1:00 PM

BAL @ INDRavens at Colts

Lamar Jackson vs Daniel Jones

63%

BAL

25–23

BAL −3.5 same

BAL has the QB edge (+11); IND at home (-8); BAL is the better team (+6) · Analyst: IND: LB downgraded to out for Ravens game (+1.9)

Sun 1:00 PM

BUF @ HOUBills at Texans

Josh Allen vs C.J. Stroud

51%

HOU

23–24

BUF −1.5 we differ

HOU at home (+8); BUF has the QB edge (-7); BUF is the better team (-1)

Sun 1:00 PM

CHI @ CARBears at Panthers

Caleb Williams vs Bryce Young

57%

CHI

24–22

CHI −3 same

CAR at home (-8); CHI is the better team (+8); CHI has the QB edge (+5)

Sun 1:00 PM

CLE @ JAXBrowns at Jaguars

Deshaun Watson vs Trevor Lawrence

81%

JAX

16–26

JAX −8.5 same

JAX is the better team (+8); JAX has the QB edge (+6); JAX in better form (+5)

Sun 1:00 PM

NO @ DETSaints at Lions

Tyler Shough vs Jared Goff

74%

DET

20–28

DET −7 same

DET is the better team (+8); DET has the QB edge (+7); DET at home (+6)

Sun 1:00 PM

NYJ @ TENJets at Titans

Geno Smith vs Cam Ward

53%

TEN

21–22

TEN −1.5 same

NYJ has the QB edge (-8); TEN at home (+8); TEN in better form (+5)

Sun 1:00 PM

TB @ CINBuccaneers at Bengals

Baker Mayfield vs Joe Burrow

65%

CIN

23–27

CIN −3.5 same

CIN at home (+7); CIN has the QB edge (+3); CIN in better form (+3)

Sun 4:25 PM

ARI @ LACCardinals at Chargers

Jacoby Brissett vs Justin Herbert

75%

LAC

18–27

LAC −9.5 same

LAC is the better team (+8); LAC at home (+6); LAC in better form (+4)

Sun 4:25 PM

GB @ MINPackers at Vikings

Jordan Love vs Kyler Murray

53%

MIN

23–24

MIN −2.5 same

GB has the QB edge (-15); MIN at home (+8); MIN in better form (+6)

Sun 4:25 PM

MIA @ LVDolphins at Raiders

Malik Willis vs Kirk Cousins

59%

MIA

24–22

LV −3 we differ

LV at home (-8); MIA is the better team (+8); MIA has the QB edge (+6)

Sun 4:25 PM

WAS @ PHICommanders at Eagles

Jayden Daniels vs Jalen Hurts

68%

PHI

20–26

PHI −6 same

PHI at home (+7); PHI is the better team (+6); PHI has the QB edge (+5) · Analyst: PHI: Rookie tight end placed on injured reserve; will not play Week 1 (-1.9)

Sun 8:20 PM

DAL @ NYGCowboys at Giants

Dak Prescott vs Jaxson Dart

55%

NYG

25–26

DAL −3 we differ

NYG at home (+8); NYG in better form (+5); DAL has the QB edge (-4)

Mon 8:15 PM

DEN @ KCBroncos at Chiefs

Bo Nix vs Patrick Mahomes

62%

DEN

25–22

KC −2.5 we differ

DEN is the better team (+9); KC at home (-8); DEN in better form (+4) · Analyst: KC: Left tackle ruled out for Monday night; undrafted rookie Kahlil Benson to start (+1.9); KC: Ruled out for Chiefs' opener Monday night (+1.9)

What moved

Every run re-predicts the week and the last one before kickoff is the pick of record. This lists any game whose probability moved a point or more, or whose pick flipped, and names the biggest reason. 6 runs so far this week · latest Sun 7:01 AM ET.

Nothing moved in the latest run — every pick and probability held. Earlier movement is listed below.

Run	Game	Pick	Before	After	Move	Biggest reason
Sat 7:01 PM ET	WAS @ PHI	PHI	70% PHI	68% PHI	-1.9 toward WAS	analyst adjustment -1.9
Sat 7:01 PM ET	DEN @ KC	DEN	42% KC	38% KC	-3.7 toward DEN	analyst adjustment -3.8
Sat 3:02 PM ET	BAL @ IND	BAL	39% IND	37% IND	-1.9 toward BAL	analyst adjustment -1.9

Accuracy by week

Straight-up hit rate. Lighter bar = a week still in progress. Hover a bar for the numbers.

Fills in after the first graded week.

Does confidence mean anything? (backtest)

Stated confidence vs. hit rate over the 2010–2025 walk-forward. The live version fills in as games are graded.

90–100% (42)

95%

80–90% (394)

82%

75–80% (376)

76%

70–75% (560)

72%

65–70% (578)

67%

60–65% (693)

60%

55–60% (752)

57%

50–55% (751)

55%

Power rankings

Points better than an average team on a neutral field, top 8. <a href="/sports/nfl/rankings">All 32 →

BUF

+5.7

+4.4

SEA

+4.2

BAL

+3.9

DET

+3.7

+3.6

JAX

+3.5

HOU

+3.0

Quarterbacks

EPA per dropback, shrunk and recency-weighted — the named starter for each team's next game. Top 8.

Jordan Love

+0.13

Jared Goff

+0.13

Matthew Stafford

+0.12

Josh Allen

+0.11

Brock Purdy

+0.10

Dak Prescott

+0.09

Lamar Jackson

+0.08

Patrick Mahomes

+0.08

Super Bowl odds

From 5,000 simulated seasons, top 8. <a href="/sports/nfl/season">Full projections →

BUF

15%

SEA

12%

DET

BAL

JAX

HOU

PHI

Hit rate by confidence × week

Darker = the model was right more often. A healthy board is dark at the top, lighter at the bottom, in every column.

Fills in after the first graded week.

Week by week

Click a week for its picks.

Week 1 · 14 pending Week 2 · 15 pending