niftiIQLab
Sports NFLNBAsoon
niftiNFL — Power rankings
As of 2026-09-13. Strength = points better than an average team on a neutral field, from Elo, opponent-adjusted EPA and the named starting QB. · predictions are published to show the model works. nothing here is betting advice.

All 32 teams

Strength: expected margin vs an average team, neutral field. Off / Def EPA: opponent-adjusted expected points added per play (offense: higher is better; defense: EPA allowed, lower is better). QB: the named starter for the next game and his shrunk EPA per dropback.
#TeamDivisionRecordStrengthEloOff EPADef EPAQBQB rating
1BUF Buffalo BillsAFC East 0–0 +5.71608 +0.094+0.005 Josh Allen+0.112
2SF San Francisco 49ersNFC West 1–0 +4.41597 +0.048+0.017 Brock Purdy+0.100
3SEA Seattle SeahawksNFC West 1–0 +4.21684 +0.035-0.069 Drew Lock-0.025
4BAL Baltimore RavensAFC North 0–0 +3.91546 +0.057+0.013 Lamar Jackson+0.084
5DET Detroit LionsNFC North 0–0 +3.71558 +0.063-0.008 Jared Goff+0.128
6LA Los Angeles RamsNFC West 0–1 +3.61576 +0.051-0.004 Matthew Stafford+0.117
7JAX Jacksonville JaguarsAFC South 0–0 +3.51572 +0.017-0.014 Trevor Lawrence+0.031
8HOU Houston TexansAFC South 0–0 +3.01609 -0.015-0.076 C.J. Stroud+0.014
9PHI Philadelphia EaglesNFC East 0–0 +2.61559 +0.027-0.044 Jalen Hurts+0.050
10NE New England PatriotsAFC East 0–1 +2.51591 +0.037-0.013 Drake Maye+0.063
11DEN Denver BroncosAFC West 0–0 +2.41610 +0.013-0.046 Bo Nix+0.052
12GB Green Bay PackersNFC North 0–0 +2.21530 +0.069+0.006 Jordan Love+0.129
13MIN Minnesota VikingsNFC North 0–0 +2.01553 -0.044-0.056 Kyler Murray+0.021
14CIN Cincinnati BengalsAFC North 0–0 +1.91483 +0.008+0.061 Joe Burrow+0.077
15CHI Chicago BearsNFC North 0–0 +0.81532 +0.033+0.012 Caleb Williams+0.023
16LAC Los Angeles ChargersAFC West 0–0 +0.51530 -0.009-0.030 Justin Herbert+0.013
17KC Kansas City ChiefsAFC West 0–0 -0.21492 +0.024-0.002 Patrick Mahomes+0.082
18TB Tampa Bay BuccaneersNFC South 0–0 -0.51482 +0.024+0.025 Baker Mayfield+0.036
19PIT Pittsburgh SteelersAFC North 0–0 -0.61513 -0.000+0.013 Aaron Rodgers-0.003
20NO New Orleans SaintsNFC South 0–0 -1.51441 -0.042-0.010 Tyler Shough-0.006
21IND Indianapolis ColtsAFC South 0–0 -1.81471 +0.037+0.010 Daniel Jones+0.025
22DAL Dallas CowboysNFC East 0–0 -1.91460 +0.030+0.084 Dak Prescott+0.093
23NYG New York GiantsNFC East 0–0 -2.11428 -0.008+0.047 Jaxson Dart-0.007
24MIA Miami DolphinsAFC East 0–0 -3.01461 -0.008+0.037 Malik Willis+0.048
25WAS Washington CommandersNFC East 0–0 -3.11464 +0.032+0.067 Jayden Daniels+0.024
26CAR Carolina PanthersNFC South 0–0 -3.41434 -0.025+0.055 Bryce Young-0.057
27ATL Atlanta FalconsNFC South 0–0 -3.61475 -0.003+0.014 Cooper Rush-0.059
28CLE Cleveland BrownsAFC North 0–0 -4.21427 -0.103-0.031 Deshaun Watson-0.060
29ARI Arizona CardinalsNFC West 0–0 -5.51396 +0.012+0.043 Jacoby Brissett-0.023
30LV Las Vegas RaidersAFC West 0–0 -7.21352 -0.095+0.019 Kirk Cousins+0.008
31NYJ New York JetsAFC East 0–0 -8.21365 -0.053+0.065 Geno Smith-0.052
32TEN Tennessee TitansAFC South 0–0 -8.61361 -0.064+0.053 Cam Ward-0.111