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niftiNFL — 2026 · Week 1
Sunday, September 13, 2026 · picks stored before kickoff, graded after the final · predictions are published to show the model works. nothing here is betting advice.
This week W1W2

Week 1 picks

0 of 0 correct · 14 not yet final
Kickoff (ET)
Matchup
Win probability
Pick
Projected
Vegas favorite
Why this pick
Sun 1:00 PM
ATL @ PITFalcons at Steelers
Cooper Rush vs Aaron Rodgers
67%
PIT
19–25
PIT −5.5 · O/U 43.6
PIT −6.5 same
PIT at home (+7); PIT has the QB edge (+7); ATL in better form (-2)
Sun 1:00 PM
BAL @ INDRavens at Colts
Lamar Jackson vs Daniel Jones
61%
BAL
25–23
BAL −1.8 · O/U 47.5
BAL −3.5 same
BAL has the QB edge (+11); IND at home (-8); BAL is the better team (+6)
Sun 1:00 PM
BUF @ HOUBills at Texans
Josh Allen vs C.J. Stroud
51%
HOU
23–24
HOU −0.5 · O/U 47.0
BUF −1.5 we differ
HOU at home (+8); BUF has the QB edge (-7); BUF is the better team (-1)
Sun 1:00 PM
CHI @ CARBears at Panthers
Caleb Williams vs Bryce Young
57%
CHI
24–22
CHI −1.8 · O/U 45.5
CHI −3 same
CAR at home (-8); CHI is the better team (+8); CHI has the QB edge (+5)
Sun 1:00 PM
CLE @ JAXBrowns at Jaguars
Deshaun Watson vs Trevor Lawrence
81%
JAX
16–26
JAX −9.6 · O/U 42.2
JAX −8.5 same
JAX is the better team (+8); JAX has the QB edge (+6); JAX in better form (+5)
Sun 1:00 PM
NO @ DETSaints at Lions
Tyler Shough vs Jared Goff
74%
DET
20–28
DET −8.3 · O/U 48.3
DET −7 same
DET is the better team (+8); DET has the QB edge (+7); DET at home (+6)
Sun 1:00 PM
NYJ @ TENJets at Titans
Geno Smith vs Cam Ward
53%
TEN
21–22
TEN −1.1 · O/U 42.6
TEN −1.5 same
NYJ has the QB edge (-8); TEN at home (+8); TEN in better form (+5)
Sun 1:00 PM
TB @ CINBuccaneers at Bengals
Baker Mayfield vs Joe Burrow
65%
CIN
23–27
CIN −4.9 · O/U 50.0
CIN −3.5 same
CIN at home (+7); CIN has the QB edge (+3); CIN in better form (+3)
Sun 4:25 PM
ARI @ LACCardinals at Chargers
Jacoby Brissett vs Justin Herbert
75%
LAC
18–27
LAC −8.4 · O/U 45.4
LAC −9.5 same
LAC is the better team (+8); LAC at home (+6); LAC in better form (+4)
Sun 4:25 PM
GB @ MINPackers at Vikings
Jordan Love vs Kyler Murray
53%
MIN
23–24
MIN −1.8 · O/U 47.1
MIN −1.5 same
GB has the QB edge (-15); MIN at home (+8); MIN in better form (+6)
Sun 4:25 PM
MIA @ LVDolphins at Raiders
Malik Willis vs Kirk Cousins
59%
MIA
24–22
MIA −2.5 · O/U 46.2
LV −3 we differ
LV at home (-8); MIA is the better team (+8); MIA has the QB edge (+6)
Sun 4:25 PM
WAS @ PHICommanders at Eagles
Jayden Daniels vs Jalen Hurts
70%
PHI
20–26
PHI −6.5 · O/U 46.4
PHI −6 same
PHI at home (+7); PHI is the better team (+6); PHI has the QB edge (+5)
Sun 8:20 PM
DAL @ NYGCowboys at Giants
Dak Prescott vs Jaxson Dart
55%
NYG
25–26
NYG −1.1 · O/U 50.4
DAL −3 we differ
NYG at home (+8); NYG in better form (+5); DAL has the QB edge (-4)
Mon 8:15 PM
DEN @ KCBroncos at Chiefs
Bo Nix vs Patrick Mahomes
60%
DEN
24–23
DEN −1.7 · O/U 47.2
KC −2.5 we differ
DEN is the better team (+9); KC at home (-8); DEN in better form (+4) · Analyst: KC: Undrafted rookie starting at LT for Chiefs; Josh Simmons (Out) replaced by unproven backup (+0.4)

What moved

Every run re-predicts the week and the last one before kickoff is the pick of record. This lists any game whose probability moved a point or more, or whose pick flipped, and names the biggest reason. 7 runs so far this week · latest Sun 11:03 AM ET.
RunGamePickBeforeAfterMoveBiggest reason
Sun 11:03 AM ET BAL @ IND BAL 37% IND 39% IND +1.9 toward IND analyst adjustment +1.9
Sun 11:03 AM ET WAS @ PHI PHI 68% PHI 70% PHI +1.9 toward PHI analyst adjustment +1.9
Sun 11:03 AM ET DEN @ KC DEN 38% KC 40% KC +2.0 toward KC analyst adjustment +3.4
Sat 7:01 PM ET WAS @ PHI PHI 70% PHI 68% PHI -1.9 toward WAS analyst adjustment -1.9
Sat 7:01 PM ET DEN @ KC DEN 42% KC 38% KC -3.7 toward DEN analyst adjustment -3.8
Sat 3:02 PM ET BAL @ IND BAL 39% IND 37% IND -1.9 toward BAL analyst adjustment -1.9