niftiIQLab
niftiNFL — 2026 · Week 2
Sunday, September 13, 2026 · picks stored before kickoff, graded after the final · predictions are published to show the model works. nothing here is betting advice.

Week 2 picks

0 of 0 correct · 15 not yet final
Kickoff (ET)
Matchup
Win probability
Pick
Projected
Vegas favorite
Why this pick
Thu 8:15 PM
DET @ BUFLions at Bills
Jared Goff vs Josh Allen
65%
BUF
24–28
BUF −3.8 · O/U 51.3
BUF −3 same
BUF at home (+7); BUF is the better team (+3); BUF in better form (+3)
Sun 1:00 PM
CAR @ ATLPanthers at Falcons
Bryce Young vs Tua Tagovailoa
56%
ATL
21–24
ATL −2.9 · O/U 45.6
ATL −1.5 same
ATL at home (+8); ATL is the better team (+4); ATL in better form (+2) · Analyst: ATL: Tua Tagovailoa ruled out with oblique injury; Cooper Rush starting instead (-5.7)
Sun 1:00 PM
CIN @ HOUBengals at Texans
Joe Burrow vs C.J. Stroud
62%
HOU
22–25
HOU −3.6 · O/U 47.3
HOU −2.5 same
HOU is the better team (+10); HOU at home (+8); CIN has the QB edge (-5)
Sun 1:00 PM
CLE @ TBBrowns at Buccaneers
Deshaun Watson vs Baker Mayfield
70%
TB
19–24
TB −5.4 · O/U 43.4
TB −6.5 same
TB has the QB edge (+9); TB at home (+7); TB is the better team (+5)
Sun 1:00 PM
GB @ NYJPackers at Jets
Jordan Love vs Geno Smith
77%
GB
27–20
GB −7.5 · O/U 47.2
GB −5.5 same
GB has the QB edge (+14); GB is the better team (+10); GB in better form (+6)
Sun 1:00 PM
MIN @ CHIVikings at Bears
Kyler Murray vs Caleb Williams
52%
CHI
22–23
CHI −0.5 · O/U 44.9
CHI −3 same
CHI at home (+8); CHI has the QB edge (+4); MIN is the better team (-3)
Sun 1:00 PM
NO @ BALSaints at Ravens
Tyler Shough vs Lamar Jackson
74%
BAL
19–27
BAL −8.4 · O/U 46.4
BAL −7.5 same
BAL is the better team (+7); BAL at home (+6); BAL has the QB edge (+5) · Analyst: NO: Placed on IR, will miss multiple weeks (+1.9)
Sun 1:00 PM
PHI @ TENEagles at Titans
Jalen Hurts vs Cam Ward
77%
PHI
26–17
PHI −8.3 · O/U 43.0
PHI −5.5 same
PHI has the QB edge (+13); PHI is the better team (+12); TEN at home (-6)
Sun 1:00 PM
PIT @ NESteelers at Patriots
Aaron Rodgers vs Drake Maye
67%
NE
20–26
NE −5.4 · O/U 45.8
NE −4.5 same
NE at home (+7); NE is the better team (+6); NE has the QB edge (+4) · Analyst: NE: Placed on IR with high ankle sprain suffered in Week 1 (-1.9)
Sun 4:05 PM
JAX @ DENJaguars at Broncos
Trevor Lawrence vs Bo Nix
51%
DEN
22–24
DEN −1.6 · O/U 45.5
DEN −3 same
DEN at home (+8); JAX has the QB edge (-6); JAX in better form (-5)
Sun 4:05 PM
LV @ LACRaiders at Chargers
Kirk Cousins vs Justin Herbert
78%
LAC
18–27
LAC −9.3 · O/U 44.5
LAC −9.5 same
LAC is the better team (+11); LAC at home (+6); LAC in better form (+3) · Analyst: LV: Head coach Klint Kubiak confirmed tight end will not play in Week 1 against Dolphins (+1.9)
Sun 4:25 PM
MIA @ SFDolphins at 49ers
Malik Willis vs Brock Purdy
74%
SF
20–29
SF −9.0 · O/U 48.7
SF −12.5 same
SF is the better team (+8); SF at home (+6); SF has the QB edge (+5) · Analyst: SF: WR ruled out for at least a month with ankle injury suffered in Week 1 vs Rams (-1.9)
Sun 4:25 PM
SEA @ ARISeahawks at Cardinals
Drew Lock vs Jacoby Brissett
76%
SEA
25–17
SEA −7.9 · O/U 42.5
SEA is the better team (+17); SEA in better form (+10); ARI at home (-6)
Sun 4:25 PM
WAS @ DALCommanders at Cowboys
Jayden Daniels vs Dak Prescott
56%
DAL
24–27
DAL −2.5 · O/U 50.8
DAL −4.5 same
DAL at home (+8); WAS has the schedule edge (-2); WAS is the better team (-1)
Sun 8:20 PM
IND @ KCColts at Chiefs
Daniel Jones vs Patrick Mahomes
60%
KC
22–25
KC −3.2 · O/U 47.4
KC −6.5 same
KC at home (+8); KC is the better team (+2); IND has the more efficient offense (-1)

What moved

Every run re-predicts the week and the last one before kickoff is the pick of record. This lists any game whose probability moved a point or more, or whose pick flipped, and names the biggest reason. 7 runs so far this week · latest Sun 11:03 AM ET.
RunGamePickBeforeAfterMoveBiggest reason
Sun 11:03 AM ET MIA @ SF SF 76% SF 74% SF -1.9 toward MIA analyst adjustment -1.9
Sat 3:02 PM ET NO @ BAL BAL 72% BAL 74% BAL +1.9 toward BAL analyst adjustment +1.9