W1W2
386 snapshots since 2026-09-12
The record against opening and closing prices fills in as games are graded. Everything on this page is captured before kickoff and never edited.
Week 1 — probability the home team wins
Each cell is open → close for that source, including ours. Bold = the source's favorite at close. Spread in brackets is home-minus-away (positive = home favored); ours is the model's projected margin. Polymarket prices are the market's own probability; sportsbook lines are de-vigged from the moneyline. green = that source's closing favorite is our pick; red = we differ.
| Kickoff | Game | niftiNFL (runs) |
Polymarket | DraftKings | nflverse |
Result |
|---|
| Wed 8:20 PM |
NE @ SEA |
– |
– |
– |
– |
SEA |
| Thu 8:35 PM |
SF @ LA |
– |
– |
– |
– |
SF |
| Sun 1:00 PM |
CHI @ CAR |
43% (-1.8) → 43% (-1.8) (8) |
40% (-3.5) → 40% (-3.5) |
41% (-3.0) → 41% (-3.0) |
40% (-3.0) → 40% (-3.0) |
pending |
| Sun 1:00 PM |
TB @ CIN |
65% (+4.9) → 65% (+4.9) (8) |
64% (+3.5) → 64% (+3.5) |
60% (+3.5) → 60% (+3.5) |
64% (+3.5) → 64% (+3.5) |
pending |
| Sun 1:00 PM |
NO @ DET |
74% (+8.3) → 76% (+8.8) (8) |
74% (+6.5) → 74% (+7.5) |
70% (+7.0) → 70% (+7.0) |
74% (+7.0) → 73% (+7.0) |
pending |
| Sun 1:00 PM |
BUF @ HOU |
51% (+0.5) → 51% (+0.5) (8) |
48% (-1.5) → 48% (-1.5) |
46% (-1.5) → 46% (-1.5) |
48% (-1.5) → 50% (-1.5) |
pending |
| Sun 1:00 PM |
BAL @ IND |
39% (-1.8) → 39% (-1.8) (8) |
40% (-3.5) → 40% (-3.5) |
40% (-3.5) → 40% (-3.5) |
39% (-3.5) → 39% (-3.5) |
pending |
| Sun 1:00 PM |
CLE @ JAX |
81% (+9.6) → 81% (+9.6) (8) |
78% (+9.5) → 80% (+9.5) |
74% (+8.5) → 74% (+8.5) |
79% (+8.5) → 79% (+8.5) |
pending |
| Sun 1:00 PM |
ATL @ PIT |
67% (+5.5) → 65% (+5.0) (8) |
72% (+5.5) → 72% (+6.5) |
67% (+6.0) → 69% (+6.5) |
70% (+6.0) → 72% (+6.5) |
pending |
| Sun 1:00 PM |
NYJ @ TEN |
53% (+1.1) → 53% (+1.1) (8) |
52% (+1.5) → 52% (+1.5) |
54% (+1.5) → 54% (+1.5) |
53% (+1.5) → 52% (+1.5) |
pending |
| Sun 4:25 PM |
ARI @ LAC |
75% (+8.4) → 75% (+8.4) (8) |
80% (+10.5) → 80% (+10.5) |
76% (+9.5) → 76% (+9.5) |
80% (+9.5) → 80% (+9.5) |
pending |
| Sun 4:25 PM |
MIA @ LV |
41% (-2.5) → 41% (-2.5) (8) |
60% (+3.5) → 60% (+3.5) |
59% (+3.0) → 59% (+3.0) |
60% (+3.0) → 60% (+3.0) |
pending |
| Sun 4:25 PM |
GB @ MIN |
53% (+1.8) → 53% (+1.8) (8) |
55% (+1.5) → 56% (+1.5) |
54% (+1.5) → 54% (+1.5) |
53% (+1.5) → 54% (+1.5) |
pending |
| Sun 4:25 PM |
WAS @ PHI |
70% (+6.5) → 70% (+6.5) (8) |
68% (+4.5) → 70% (+6.5) |
67% (+6.0) → 67% (+6.0) |
69% (+6.0) → 70% (+6.0) |
pending |
| Sun 8:20 PM |
DAL @ NYG |
55% (+1.1) → 55% (+1.1) (8) |
40% (-2.5) → 40% (-3.5) |
41% (-3.0) → 41% (-3.0) |
41% (-3.0) → 40% (-3.0) |
pending |
| Mon 8:15 PM |
DEN @ KC |
42% (-1.2) → 40% (-1.7) (8) |
56% (+2.5) → 56% (+2.5) |
57% (+2.5) → 57% (+2.5) |
56% (+2.5) → 55% (+2.5) |
pending |
Sources: nflverse schedule feed (the closing line used in every backtest), Polymarket public API (prices are the market's own probability; liquidity varies by game), ESPN's scoreboard feed (provider as named by ESPN). All free, none paid, none a model input.