W1W2
386 snapshots since 2026-09-12
The record against opening and closing prices fills in as games are graded. Everything on this page is captured before kickoff and never edited.
Week 2 — probability the home team wins
Each cell is open → close for that source, including ours. Bold = the source's favorite at close. Spread in brackets is home-minus-away (positive = home favored); ours is the model's projected margin. Polymarket prices are the market's own probability; sportsbook lines are de-vigged from the moneyline. green = that source's closing favorite is our pick; red = we differ.
| Kickoff | Game | niftiNFL (runs) |
Polymarket | nflverse |
Result |
|---|
| Thu 8:15 PM |
DET @ BUF |
65% (+3.8) → 65% (+3.8) (8) |
60% (-14.5) → 61% (+3.5) |
59% (+3.0) → 60% (+3.0) |
pending |
| Sun 1:00 PM |
CAR @ ATL |
56% (+2.9) → 56% (+2.9) (6) |
52% (-2.5) → 51% (-2.5) |
53% (+1.5) → 53% (+1.5) |
pending |
| Sun 1:00 PM |
NO @ BAL |
72% (+7.9) → 74% (+8.4) (6) |
78% (-13.5) → 78% (-8.5) |
75% (+7.5) → 75% (+7.5) |
pending |
| Sun 1:00 PM |
MIN @ CHI |
52% (+0.5) → 52% (+0.5) (6) |
60% (+1.5) → 60% (+1.5) |
60% (+3.0) → 60% (+3.0) |
pending |
| Sun 1:00 PM |
CIN @ HOU |
62% (+3.6) → 62% (+3.6) (6) |
56% (+2.5) → 55% (+2.5) |
57% (+2.5) → 57% (+2.5) |
pending |
| Sun 1:00 PM |
PIT @ NE |
67% (+5.4) → 67% (+5.4) (6) |
62% (-3.5) → 62% (+4.5) |
64% (+4.5) → 64% (+4.5) |
pending |
| Sun 1:00 PM |
GB @ NYJ |
23% (-7.5) → 23% (-7.5) (6) |
32% (-5.5) → 32% (-5.5) |
32% (-5.5) → 32% (-5.5) |
pending |
| Sun 1:00 PM |
CLE @ TB |
70% (+5.4) → 70% (+5.4) (6) |
73% (+7.5) → 74% (+6.5) |
71% (+6.5) → 71% (+6.5) |
pending |
| Sun 1:00 PM |
PHI @ TEN |
23% (-8.3) → 23% (-8.3) (6) |
30% (+2.5) → 30% (+2.5) |
33% (-5.5) → 33% (-5.5) |
pending |
| Sun 4:05 PM |
JAX @ DEN |
51% (+1.6) → 51% (+1.6) (4) |
58% (-4.5) → 59% (+3.5) |
58% (+3.0) → 58% (+3.0) |
pending |
| Sun 4:05 PM |
LV @ LAC |
78% (+9.3) → 78% (+9.3) (4) |
80% (+9.5) → 79% (+9.5) |
77% (+9.5) → 76% (+9.5) |
pending |
| Sun 4:25 PM |
SEA @ ARI |
24% (-7.9) → 24% (-7.9) (4) |
23% (-9.5) → 21% (-9.5) |
– |
pending |
| Sun 4:25 PM |
WAS @ DAL |
56% (+2.5) → 56% (+2.5) (4) |
68% (-3.5) → 68% (-3.5) |
64% (+4.5) → 64% (+4.5) |
pending |
| Sun 4:25 PM |
MIA @ SF |
76% (+9.5) → 74% (+9.0) (4) |
86% (-4.5) → 86% (+10.5) |
86% (+12.5) → 86% (+12.5) |
pending |
| Sun 8:20 PM |
IND @ KC |
60% (+3.2) → 58% (+2.7) (3) |
71% (+3.5) → 71% (+6.5) |
71% (+6.5) → 71% (+6.5) |
pending |
| Mon 8:15 PM |
NYG @ LA |
– |
– |
– |
pending |
Sources: nflverse schedule feed (the closing line used in every backtest), Polymarket public API (prices are the market's own probability; liquidity varies by game), ESPN's scoreboard feed (provider as named by ESPN). All free, none paid, none a model input.